THE PLO IS BETTING ON A LOSING HORSE


PLO officials are being sometimes interviewed by various TV stations. It
seems that they have been instructed to present the opinion that no
PEACE agreement can be achieved between ISRAEL and PALESTINE without a
strong involvement by the US. The fact that it has been so often repeated by
PLO representatives, indicates it is indeed the official policy of the
PLO to rely on a possible strong US diplomatic intervention which would
result in Israel becoming more "reasonable".

In the past, such a policy led to the Madrid agreement and the Oslo
agreements which left many important points unresolved. Israel later
"resolved" them unilaterally, in a way which made a mockery of the peace
process.

The US remained all the time supportive of Israel, maintaining its military
help to Israel, even when this help was being used to increase the
oppression against the Palestinian people. The lesson has not been learned
by the PLO. Why?

Apparently, the PLO does not know what else to do. The acts of terrorism
against Israel have strengthened the Sharon government and made it possible
for him to increase the development in the settlements.

The PLO feels weak, without strong allies, and has not enough of a
creative imagination to develop a different strategy than the one based on
the wishful thinking that, somehow, the day might come when the
international constellation will be favourable for a stronger support of
the US for the Palestinian demands. In a sense, it is a gamble which may
never succeed.

This gamble allows the solutions to be delayed and give to Israel more
possibilities to create "irreversible facts on the ground".

What is worse, is that some voices coming from the PLO are being heard
suggesting a bargain in which the Palestinians, supposedly represented by
the PLO, would renounce the right of return, in exchange of the dismantling
of all the Jewish settlements. The idea being that the PLO cannot hope to
reach any better deal.

Let us say that the PLO will make such a deal, and let us suppose that it
will result in a peace agreement being signed. Should not I, as a Jew, be
happy of such a prospect? I know that justice cannot always be obtained.
Would not such a solution be a pragmatic way of establishing peace in the
region?

I do not think so. I am not looking forward for whatever attainable peace.
I want a peace of such a kind that it will not be challenged by next
generations. A peace that would deny the refugees their right of return,
will just be a lull preceding a next conflict. It will not disolve the
constituency of the terrorist groups.

Part (2) will present an alternative strategy
-------------------------------------------------
           The Plo is betting on the wrong horse (part 2)

There are three main political currents in Palestine.

HANMAS WAY

Here I want to differentiate between violence and terror. Acts of violences
designed at hurting the military are acts of resistance. Acts of violence
designed at hurting civilians are acts of terrorism.

Hamas is resorting to both. The acts against the Israeli military are
perceived as directed against the occupation of the West Bank and Ghaza.
Those acts drive the Israeli population to think that the violence could
cease with the evacuation by Israel of the occupied land.

The acts of terror send a different message. The Israeli perceive from them
that Hamas is standing not only against the occupation, but against the
Israeli people. It leads the Israeli people to think that the occupation is
justified. It reinforces the position of the government and that of Sharon
personally.

IT IS A DEAD END because when it comes to terror, the Israeli terror is much
more successful in inflicting casualties and in killing Palestinians. It
is a losing game for the Palestinians, it is so from the point of view of
physical harm inflicted, from the political point of view, from the point
of view of the international public opinion and. from the fact that it
facilitates Sharon's policy of further developing the Jewish settlements.

THE PLO's WAY

It has been described in part one. In short it relies on the hope that,
one day, in a more favourable political constellation, the US might realise
that it has an interest in siding somewhat less with Israel, and somewhat
more with the Palestinians. It is a bet made on the wrong horse.

                      THE GENUINE PALESTINIAN WAY

I know that some Palestinian personalities are favouring the way I
will now describe. I do not want to cite names. Let those who feel like
it, identify themselves at their own chosen time.

A genuine Palestinian way has to rely on a correct analysis. When the PLO
relies on the US, it expresses the desire that the US would play the role
of an "active buffer" between Palestine and Israel. In this context
Palestine is represented by Arafat, while Israel is represented today by
Sharon, another day by some other expansionist Israeli leader.

Again and again it has been proved that nothing much can be realised in this
way. The genuine way would consist in renouncing the buffering of the US
and renouncing for a while at speaking with the Israeli expansionist
leaders.

Instead. Palestine must engage in talking with the Israeli people. It is a
people who is similar to other peoples, except for the fact that it is
strongly indoctrinated with wrong information.

This raises two questions: how to speak with the Israeli people? What to say
to the Israeli people. The answer cannot be given without understanding
the Israeli people. That is why I will have to deal with the:

JEWISH CHARACTER

The Jews themselves do not know quite well what it is. It is not the same
thing for the secular Jews and for the orthodox Jews. Whatever it is, and
though they do not know exactly what it is, the scare of the Israelis to
have Israel "lose its Jewish character" is genuine and very great. For some,
the loss of the Jewish character is associated with the loss of a clear
Jewish majority in the Israeli population. If the population is of a large
Jewish majority, then the Jewish character, whatever that may be, will
remain safe.

Palestinians do not have tanks, planes, helicopters, submarines etc...,
they do not have powerful allies. And still, they can win if they know how
to speak to the Israeli people, how to address their fears, without
renouncing their own rights. In so doing, they will switch the
international public opinion to their side.

DEMOCRACY AS A WAY TO SPEAK TO THE ISRAELI PEOPLE.

Democracy in the US was only formal. It was the democracy of the dollar.
Still, the US had one wonderful institution: the bill of rights. Now,
the US is in the process of losing even that.

I am not speaking of democracy as being the "good" or "best" regime for
the Palestinians. The Palestinians are to chose themselves the kind of
regime they want. It might be a democratic regime, it might be democratic
but quite different from the western democracy.

I am here mentioning democracy AS A VALUABLE TOOL that speaks to the Israeli
people, and not to Sharon. Democracy in the hands of the Palestinians can be
a very powerful tool in their fight for their rights. It is valuable in two
respects.

a) On the one hand, Israel has the reputation of being "the only democracy
in the region". This statement is partially true, and partially false. The
Israeli democracy is ethnical in character. It exists for the Jewish Israeli
citizens, and do not exist for the Arab Israeli citizens. However, the fact
that it does exist for the Jewish citizen is universally well know, and is
one of the reasons for which Israel is in high regard in the international
public opinion. Therefore, were Palestine to be able to announce a
democratic constitution more advanced, more tolerant than any other in the
world, were Palestine able to adopt a bill of right more powerful in
protecting the civil rights of the population, Palestine could then claim
and obtain the same respect monopolised just now by Israel.

But more importantly, to adopt a democratic constitution, and to make of it
a reality, is to speak to the Israeli people over the head of their leaders.
It is to say to them: "You do not have to fear Palestinians, be them
a minority or a majority." (more on this in part 3)

"Just as the Jewish character had flourished in Arabic Spain, the Jewish
character, whatever it is, can flourish still more under an Arab majority
ruled by a generous constitution which mention as an essential and
fundamental principle, the closeness of the Palestinian and Israeli people
in their history, their geography, their economic and cultural interests."

To proclaim a democratic constitution, would be a "coup" badly damaging
(on the level of the international public opinion) the false justification
for the policy of occupation and repression practiced by Israel against the
Palestinians. It will also "speak" to the Israeli people.

I know it as a fact that an Israeli not residing in Israel, call him
Joseph, endeavoured to participate in Palestinian efforts at writing
a Palestinian constitution which would be much better than the US
constitution in terms of its humanity. A Palestinian constitution has to
come out of efforts made by Palestinians within Palestine. Joseph wanted
to play a secondary role, helping in references and in expressing the
feelings of a future peaceful neighbouring people, the Israeli people.

Joseph had started some steps in his endeavour. He was to visit Israel
last March.

He did not. His relatives in Israel were warned by the secret services that,
under the threat of losing their jobs, they were to keep quite whatever
would occur to Joseph when he lands in Israel.

Many Israeli had expressed opinions of dissent, without being harrased by
the Israeli authorities. But Joseph was considered more dangerous. To
participate in a Palestinian effort at formulating a democratic
constitution (even in a secondary capacity), is perceived by Sharon
and his likes as such a great threat, that Joseph had to be prevented from
going on with the project. The participation of a Jew in such a
constitutional project is intended to speak to the Israeli people. The
constitution would mainly be the work of Palestinians and would have no
value without the expressed support from authoritative Palestinian voices.

The fear of Israel that Palestinians could get a democratic constitution,
is enough to show that it is a valuable tool that Palestinian must perfect
and use. It would neutralise quite an amount of false information fed to the
Israeli during decades.

In short, it is possible to put a serious wedge between the Israeli
leadership and the Israeli people by "speaking to the Israeli people"
with new realities, new accomplishments. For that, it is necessary that
there be more unity among the Palestinians to reach a common agreement for
stopping the counter-productive violence against Israeli civilians.

Then, ways must be devised to "talk to the Israeli people" over the head
of its leaders. The constitution is just one way. There are other ways
which can be devised by a creative leadership. I will write again in this
respect.

What is certain is that once the Palestinians succeed in putting a wedge
between the Israeli leadership and the Israeli people, new prospects for
peace and justice would be created. Let us not forget that, in the long
term, the interest of Palestinians and Israeli are identical and fuse in
the words "Peace and prosperity". With creative strategy, it will become
a reality.
----------------------------------------------------------
           THE PLO IS BETTING ON THE WRONG HORSE (part 3)

Part 2 proposed as a Palestinian strategy to bet on the commonality of
interests between the Palestinian people and the Israeli people. In this
respect, three questions have to be answered:

1) How to address the feeling of humiliation and frustration of the
Palestinian people who, while being brutally repressed by the Israeli
government, is asked to accept that its path to liberation goes through
friendship with the Israeli people. Is it not demeaning to have to befriend
whom are acting as enemies? Why should the Palestinians, the victims of the
Israeli oppression, have to prove their goodwill?                  
2) How to address the fears of the Israeli people concerning the possible
loss of the Jewish character of Israel.

3) How to demonstrate that the suggested strategy has any chance of success.

Part 3 will start dealing with these three questions which will be fully
addressed in part 4.

While stating here my opinion that it is in the power of the Palestinian
people to reach its objective through a Creative strategy, I am very aware
that it is in the interest of the Jews in Israel that the state of
friendship and and prosperity be so achieved by such a policy.

While stating what the Palestinians could do, there is no doubt that the
Israeli who most understand the situation, who have already escaped the
mystification to which the rest of the Israeli population is subjected to,
should do their part too. They have an important role in contributing to
the demystification of the Israeli people.

    PALESTINIAN LIBERATION THROUGH FRIENDSHIP WITH THE ISRAELI PEOPLE

The fact is that Sharon's government is clearly not interested in peaceful
and friendly relations with the Palestinian people. The fact is that the
Israeli people does support the Sharon government.

However, unless one is racist, one must believe that the enmity that
Israelis manifest against the Palestinians and the Arabs in general, is
not built-in in the Israeli genes. It is not a genetic propensity. It is
an acquired attitude resulting from being submitted to vicious propaganda
and false information. The potential therefore exists that a process of
demystifying the Israeli population, could neutralise this feelings of
enmity,

Besides, the Palestinian people has no other valid choice. If they make
a list of all other options, they find nothing they did not yet tried for
decades, without promise of success. Terrorism has played in the hands of
the various Israeli governments, and is playing in the hands of Sharon.
The events of September 11, have lead to a situation enabling Bush to
pursue an evil agenda while mobilising most of the world into a "coalition'
at the service of that agenda. In short, terrorism does not pay.

In contrast, violence directed solely against the military, has not been
tried. It would be perceived as resistance to occupation, and not as hate
against the Israeli people.

The Palestinians, having exhausted all other options, and having failed to
achieve definitive results towards total evacuation of the West Bank and the
Ghaza strip, must consider the very promising option remaining: introducing
a serious wedge between the Israeli government and the Israeli people, as
a prelude to the development of a new atmosphere between the Palestinian
people and the Israeli people. It is a daring strategy, full of promise,
which will also achieve a greater respectability of the Palestinian
movement in the eyes of the world public opinion.

Finally, there are trends among Palestinians not to give up the claim
for a single Palestinian state. Some of those Palestinians add that the
post-1948 Jewish population, and its descendants, should then be forced to
leave Palestine. The question of a single state will be dealt with in
part 4.

   THE ISRAELIS' FEAR OF THE LOSS BY ISRAEL OF ITS JEWISH CHARACTER

The Israeli have to chose between the following possible alternatives:

1) to protect the Jewish character of the Israeli state, whatever that
means, by rejecting the right of return of the Palestinian refugees and by
offering to the Palestinians a fake independence under a factual Israeli
control. The possible cost of this option is enormous. The risks it
involves for the Jewish people are destructive.

Presently, there is no danger to Israeli's security. Its military
superiority is overwhelming. As to terrorism, Israeli is more effective
in inflicting losses to the Palestinians than vice-versa.
As we said, Palestinian terrorism does not represent a threat to Sharon's
government; quite the contrary is true.

However, when we come to consider the long term security of Israel, the
situation is quite different. There is no law of nature stating that
the US will be forever on the side of Israel. There is no law of nature
stating that forever it will be impossible for any Arab state to become
a military power equal or superior to Israel.

In fact the Israel State has been destroyed more than once. The Jerusalem
temple has been destroyed more than once. It is not impossible that it
could occur again. What is certain is that there cannot be a long term
security for an Israeli state surrounded by hostile Arab states. The only
possible long term security for Israel resides in achieving a peace
settlement with the Palestinian people, such that it would not be put into
question by next generation. It must therefore be acceptable to both
parties, and not imposed on any of them. It cannot avoid the recognition
of the right of return of the Palestinian refugees.

Here we must make a distinction between what can be achieved in a near
future and what can be achieved in a long term.              
Instead of working a solution forward i.e. from the situation today to
the desired harmonious situation of friendship between the two peoples,
we will try to work the solution backwards.

SPSFIAP stands for Single Palestinian State for Israeli and Palestinians
BCTAFPBAPSSAAIS stands for Building Confidence, Trust And Friendship
               Between an Arab Palestinian State And an Israeli state
IEPADIS stands for Israel evacuates Palestine (West bank and Ghaza Strip)
              and Dismantle the Israeli Settlements.
IWBIPAL stands for Introducing a Wedge Between the Israeli People and
              its Leadership
STWKRAN stands for Stop Terrorism While Keeping Resistance Against Military.
CPTHDIP stands for Creative policies that help demystify the Israeli people
DBOCP   stands for Demonstrations Based on the Creative Policies

The solution worked backwards looks as follows.
                                                     |STWKRAM|
|SPSFIAP|<--|BCTAFBAPSAAIS|<--|IEPADIS|<--|IWBIPAL|<--|CPTHDIP|
                                                     |DBOCP  |
This diagram means the following:

The final "destination" is SPSFIAP or a single Palestinian state for
Israeli and Palestinians. However, this final destination cannot be
imposed on Israel. Not only is Israel very powerful militarily, but she
has atomic bombs which Sharon, or his likes, would rather use than being
cornered into a forced renunciation to the "Israeli state with a Jewish
character."

Therefore the single state has to be preceded by the coexistence of two
states, an Arab Palestinian state and a Jewish Israeli state.

In order that the passage from two states to one could occur peacefully,
trust and confidence must have been built between the two states.
Therefore SPSFIAP must be preceded by BCTAFBAPSAAIS as they have been
defined.

However, to have trust and confidence being build requires that the
Palestinian state be really independent which presupposes IEPADIS
or the evacuation of the occupied territories and the dismantling of
the settlements..

But we know that the likes of Sharon will never agree to that. The only
way is therefore IWBIPAL which means introducing a wedge between the
Israeli people and its leadership.

The wedge can be effective if it relies on STWKRAM or stopping Terrorism
While Keeping the Resistance Against the Military. This would send the
message that the Palestinian are acting against the Military occupation,
and not against the Israeli people.

At the same time Creative Policies must be designed which contributes in
demystifying the Israeli people, thus creating the possibility of drawing
a Wedge between the Israeli people and its leadership. This Creative
Policies must be accompanied by DBOCP or demonstrations based on the
Creative Policies.

Now we can reverse the process and go from here to there. from a state
of hostilities to the dream of a single State.

|STWKRAM|
|CPTHDIP|-->|IWBIPAL|-->|IEPADIS|-->|BCTAFBAPSAAIS|-->|SPSFIAP|
|DBOCP  |

Details of each step will be the object of part 4. They will again deal
with the Israeli fear of losing the Jewish character. Part 4 will be more
specific.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
These days have witnessed an escalation in the terrorism against the
Jewish population, and a parallel escalation of the terrorism against the
Palestinian population. The two elements of this hellish circle feed each
other and benefit each other. Both populations mourn their victims. The
only winner is Sharon.

Sharon had lost in the recent past a lot of credibility. His reputation
was being degraded. The international sympathy for Israel was diming- Now,
Sharon is once more successfully playing the outraged victim. He gets a
freehand in his handling of the Palestinian population Terrorism by HAMAS
has not benefited the Palestinian people.

Since September 11 the world is facing a new situation which affects the
developments in all parts of the world. It incumbs on the Palestinian
leaderships to be aware of its implication and to think about how it could
affect their optimum policies.

The interests of the US extreme right are inextricably tied to the
interests of the large US corporations, particularly of the US oil
industries. The normal interplays in the US dollarised democracy gave
enough elbow space to the large corporation for an increase of their
profits. However these corporations had a gigantic ambition.

The US has developed an awesome military power. Without any humane
consideration, it has recently used that power against such smaller
countries as Libya, Panama, Iraq, Sudan, The ambitions of the great
corporations is to use the military power whenever they want, against
whomever they want, as long as it ensures an increase in the military
budget, with its resulting profits, and as long as it ensures the US
world domination, starting with the less developed countries.

However, the democratic institutions and the bill of rights were in their
way. They dreamed of suppressing dissension against policies hurting the
environment, or hurting the standard of living of the poor in the US and
all over the world.

In this respect, the terrorist attack against New York was an unexpected
great gift to the extreme right and the US corporations. Under the name of
protection against terrorism and fighting it the constitution is
being ignored, the bill of rights is being neutralised. The US not only is
now pushing its agenda, but it is doing it supported by a  °coalition°
which gives it an appearance of morality and purity of intentions. It is
clear that Terrorism has not benefited any people on Earth. It has
benefited the US largest corporations.

HAMAS would do well to ruminate on that.

In fact, were Hamas an arm of the Israeli MOSSAD, it would not have acted
otherwise. Hamas has in effect given to Sharon all he could dream of.
Whether HAMAS has fallen in an Israeli trap, or whether the explanation is
more sinister, the fact is that objectively, the actions of HAMAS run
contrary to the best interests of the Palestinian people.

It is time that all the other Palestinian parties take a stand and say
that, unless HAMAS renounces terrorism, any act of terrorism by HAMAS
against the Israeli people, will be considered as an act of terrorism
against the Palestinian people. Hamas and its members will then be treated
accordingly.,

In order to avoid any ambiguity, I am stating here my position with
respect to violence.

Terrorism and Violence

It is a sad fact to recognise that the 1st Intefada had a positive effect
for the Palestinian cause. Before the Intefada, Israel was denying the
existence of a Palestinian nation. It is the Intefada which, so to say,
put the Palestinian national question on the map. This does not mean there
was no other way. Possibly, a generalised policy of civil disobedience,
could have achieved a similar result. The fact is that the Palestinian
population could not withstand in silence any longer the barbaric Israeli
repression

I am against all forms of violence, but I do distinguish the primary
violence constituted by the Israeli occupation of the post-1967
territories, by the Israeli repression, by Israel's refusal to implement
the UN decision regarding the right of retun of the refugees, from the
various forms of violence which constitute a resistance to that primary
violence and which I call secondary violence.

However, violence should never be an aim. At most it could be a means
towards an aim. It must therefore constantly be justified as serving the
aim during the various circumstances during which it is being used.
Violence, even when successful, must be compared to other means which could
possibly achieve the same aim with less human costs.

We must also acknowledge that, when violence is used indiscriminately
against a civil population, it becomes an expression of terrorism.

The Palestinian violence has taken three essential aspects:

1) violence against the Israeli military
2) violence against the settlers
3) violence against the Israeli civil population.

The most known violence against the military, was and is the throwing of
stones by Palestinian youth against Israeli soldiers.

There is no doubt that it had underlined the barbarity of the Israeli
repression and, in this measure, was successful

Still, this success has been achieved at too high a price. I squarely put
the responsibility of the killing of stone-throwers on the shoulders of the
Israeli leadership. They are the ones issuing the orders to shoot on the
children.

Still, the Palestinian leadership is not blameless. It may well be that
parents, after realising that the Israelis did not hesitate to kill
children, tried to but could not prevent from expressing their opposition
to the occupation by throwing stones at the soldiers.

However, the Palestinian leadership did not issue the opinion that the
lives of these children were much too precious, and that other ways could
be adopted to achieve the aims. The following could have been tried.

Imagine children advancing towards the Israeli soldiers with banners that
say in Hebrew:

"Soldiers! We love you as human beings, as peaceful neighbour. We dislike
you as occupiers. as deprivers of our freedom".

It is not impossible, though unlikely, that the Israeli soldiers would
have shot at such crowd of children. But on the one hand the opprobe
against Israel would have been much greater, even among the Israeli
population and, on the other hand, the Palestinian leadership would have
been perceived as wiser, and more concerned.

I would like here to pay tribute to all the Palestinian children who either
were killed or were wounded, or had their bones broken by order of Rabin.
My heart bleeds for each and all of them. In my heart exists an emotional
monument dedicated to all of them. I love you all so much! If only I could
have given my life instead of yours.

Once more, the guilty criminal party is the Israeli leadership. The
Palestinian leadership is guilty of lack of wisdom.

A settler not displaying arms should be considered an unwelcome guest
whose life is not threatened. If he displays arms, he will be considered
as an >Israeli soldier of occupation. He is liable to be attacked.
Precautions will be taken to make sure that his wife and children will not
be bodily harmed by such an attack.

A soldier on Israeli grounds is safe from attack. If he is on occupied
territory, he risks to be attacked as part of the military occupation.

In view of the pressure of events, I will have to leave for later the
promised considerations for a Palestinian strategy of success. I hope to
do that in part 5.

-- 
Clement Leibovitz
e-mail: info@cleibovitz.org

websites:
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